Agent Based Model

Recent African strains of Zika virus display higher transmissibility and fetal pathogenicity than Asian strains

The global emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) revealed the unprecedented ability for a mosquito-borne virus to cause congenital birth defects. A puzzling aspect of ZIKV emergence is that all human outbreaks and birth defects to date have been exclusively …

Modeling intra-mosquito dynamics of Zika virus and its dose-dependence confirms the low epidemic potential of Aedes albopictus

To assess *Ae. albopictus* vector potential for ZIKV and identify key virus outbreak predictors, we built a complete framework using the complementary combination of (i) dose-dependent experimental *Ae. albopictus* exposure to ZIKV followed by time-dependent assessment of infection and systemic infection rates, (ii) modeling of intra-human ZIKV viremia dynamics, and (iii) in silico epidemiological simulations using an Agent-Based Model. Our results reveal a low but existing epidemic potential of *Ae. albopictus* for ZIKV, that might explain the absence of large scale ZIKV epidemics so far in territories occupied only by *Ae. albopictus*. They nevertheless support active surveillance and eradication programs in these territories to maintain the risk of emergence to a low level.

Epidemiological significance of dengue virus genetic variation in mosquito infection dynamics

We combined newly generated empirical measurements in vivo and outbreak simulations in silico to assess the epidemiological significance of genetic variation in dengue virus (DENV) transmission kinetics by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. We used a logistic model with three-parameters to estimate intra-mosquito virus dynamics based on the cumulative proportion of mosquitoes experimentally exposed to DENV with a systemic (disseminated) infection over time.